Are These the Real Salary Cap Numbers?

Over the last month there has been a great amount of confusion concerning the amount of money each team has available for rollover under the 2011 salary cap and financial obligations under the 2012 cap.  Adam Schefter put out one set of numbers and the KC Star puts out its own set of figures.  According to ProFootballTalk.com NFL off season cap compliance is based upon the total salaries of the 51 highest paid players on a team's roster.  With the salary cap expected to be around $120 million for the upcoming 2012 season (but has not been officially announced) I decided to do a little tabulating in anticipation of the start of Free Agency.  Amounts were derived using the 'top 51' salary report from ProFootballTalk.com and then adding that amount to the 2011 rollover cap space available (also from ProFootballTalk) for each team in the AFC West. 

Red = over the cap    As of February 29, 2012

Team	2011 Roll-Over Money	2012 Obligations	2012 Cap Space
Raiders	$3.23 mil	$145.7 mil	$22.47 mil
Chargers	$2.1 mil	$112.8 mil	$9.3 mil
Chiefs	$24.01 mil	$108.9 mil	$35.11 mil
Broncos	$27.88 mil	$98.7 mil	$49.18 mil

Oh the Raiders.

As you can see, the Raiders are in what is commonly referred to as 'salary cap hell'.  Within the next two weeks, the Raiders need to cut $22.47 million from their payroll to be in compliance with the 2012 salary cap.  How many current players will be willing to renegotiate?  The highest paid players on the team are currently With all the money available this season, why would a player not just stand his ground, get cut, and move on to greener pastures with more opportunity to win games?  How many will they have to cut?  Stanford Routt was already let go, much to the delight of the Chiefs, but who else will be coming available unexpectedly?  The first item to look for are players near the end of an existing contract, because there will be less prorated signing bonus money to count against the 2012 cap.  The players that fit this mold:

• John Henderson:  $4 million in salary only $750k in bonuses.
• Richard Seymour: $15 million in compensation including a $7.5 mil roster bonus (not prorated)
• Shane Lechler:  $6 million in compensation only $1 million in signing bonus.
• Darren McFadden: $6.7 million against the cap and owed $2 million in prorated signing bonus.
• Sebastian Janikowski:  Any time a kicker makes $4 mil a year, he's likely to get cut.

Cutting or renegotiating with these 5 players would produce approximately $24 million in savings (including the prorated bonus hits) and most likely relegate them to the basement of the AFC West for a couple of years.  (hooray!)  To make matter worse, the Raiders at this point have no 2012 draft picks higher than the 5th round because of the trade for Carson Palmer and the selection of Terrelle Pryor in the Supplemental Draft.

Would the Chiefs be interested in a player like Richard Seymour if her were to become available?  He is definitely willing to sign a 1 or 2 year contract (that's what he did with the Raiders) at the right price and would allow the Chiefs to sit Tyson Jackson on the bench.  Seymour is actually the same age as NY Jet free agent DT Sione Pouha, both will be entering their age 33 season in 2012.

There is also the possibility the San Diego Chargers will do a little housecleaning.  John Clayton is reporting that both DE Luis Castillo and LT Marcus McNeill could be let go prior to next week's salary cap deadline.  Castillo only played in one game in 2011 due to injury but if healthy would be a nice upgrade over Tyson Jackson at DE.  I have no idea what to make of Marcus McNeill.  If he is healthy, why would a team let him go, and if the Chiefs sign him will they just sit him on the bench like they did with Jared Gaither (who played really well in San Diego)?  Either way, there are going to be a number of cap casualties hitting the free agent market.