1. Detroit
2. Cleveland
3. Chicago
4. Kansas City
5. Minnesota
Rotations: Green highlight indicates a pitcher is left-handed; just like scissors
1. Detroit Tigers:
The AL Central has only one pitching ace, and luckily for the Tigers, it's Justin Verlander. Verlander managed to allow 1.2 less hits/9 in 2011 which was the main factor in his career low WHIP of 0.92 and ERA of 2.40. His previous career low WHIP and ERA was 1.16 and 3.37 respectively. While Verlander was dominant in previous years, last season could end up being a career year with some minor regression to be expected after throwing 250+ innings in 2011. Doug Fister, after being acquired in a trade with Seattle, managed to drop his walk rate by nearly 1.5/9 innings and raised his K/9 by nearly 2 runs up to 7.3/9 innings from Seattle to Detroit. Are these two performances repeatable? The backs of their baseball cards indicate they are not. Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have both struggled to provide consistent performances to match their draft status. It will be interesting to see if Giavotella can continue to rake against Scherzer in 2012. He hit .571/.571/1.286 with 1 homer and 2 doubles in 7 at-bats in 2011. Turner is a highly regarded prospect with limited (and unsuccessful) exposure to Major League hitters.
| Starter | GS | IP | ERA/WHIP/K9 | |
| 1 | Justin Verlander | 34 | 251 | 2.40/0.92/8.96 |
| 2 | Doug Fister | 216.1 | 2.83/1.06/6.07 | |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | 33 | 195 | 4.43/1.35/8.03 |
| 4 | Rick Porcello | 31 | 182 | 4.75/1.41/5.14 |
| 5 | Jacob Turner | 3 | 12.2 | 8.53/1.66/5.68 |
| on deck | Phil Coke | |||
| Casey Crosby | ||||
| Andrew Oliver | ||||
| Jay Voss |
2. Cleveland Indians:
After trading a boat-load of prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez in 2011, the Indians are expecting a breakout performance in 2012. Jiminez strikes out nearly a batter an inning but he also surrenders nearly a hit/inning and has a walk rate of nearly 4/9 innings. Masterson, coming into his age 27 season has managed to cut his walk rate nearly in half, but also saw his walk rate drop from 8.2 in 2009 to only 6.6 in 2011. Fewer K's means more balls in play which usually translates to a lower ceiling for a pitcher. The 3-5 slots in the rotation are manned by an ancient Derek Lowe who has regressed far below his prime and two control pitchers in Tomlin and Slowey. The loss of the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona, Carrasco to injury, and young pitching talent as a result of the Jiminez trade leave the 2012 Indians with few options after the top 5.
| Starter | GS | IP | ERA/WHIP/K9 | |
| 1 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 32 | 188.1 | 4.68/1.40/8.60 |
| 2 | Justin Masterson | 33 | 216 | 3.21/1.28/6.58 |
| 3 | Derek Lowe | 34 | 187 | 5.05/1.51/6.59 |
| 4 | Josh Tomlin | 26 | 165 | 4.25/1.08/4.84 |
| 5 | Kevin Slowey | 8 | 59.1 | 6.67/1.40/5.16 |
| on deck | David Huff | |||
| Jeanmar Gomez | ||||
| Mitch Talbot | ||||
| Roberto Heredia (Carmona) | ||||
3. Chicago White Sox:
The White Sox have the arms to compete with Detroit for the top spot in the division. Danks and Floyd are solid 2-3 starters, unfortunately, they have to fill the 1-2 slot in the rotation. Both are capable of missing bats on a consistent basis which is a must if they are going to pitch in the hitter friendly yard in Chicago. The Sox will truly have a formidable rotation if Jake Peavy can regain his pre-injury form. Phil Humber, who was acquired from the Royals, had a surprising 2011 but moves up a spot in the rotation with the departure of Mark Buerhle. Chris Sale is a young converted lefty reliever with exceptional stuff and little experience as a starter in professional baseball. While Buerhle was not an ace in the same manner as Verlander, he did take the ball every 5th day and his departure has forced every starter to move up one spot in the rotation which could create more favorable pitching matchups for AL Central opponents.
| Starter | GS | IP | ERA/WHIP/K9 | |
| 1 | John Danks | 27 | 170.1 | 4.33/1.34/7.13 |
| 2 | Gavin Floyd | 30 | 193.2 | 4.37/1.16/7.02 |
| 3 | Jake Peavy | 18 | 111.2 | 4.92/1.26/7.66 |
| 4 | Phillip Humber | 26 | 163 | 3.75/1.18/6.40 |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 0 | 71 | 2.79/1.11/10.01 |
| on deck | Simon Castro | |||
| Nestor Molina | ||||
| Zach Stewart | ||||
| Addison Reed |
4. Kansas City Royals:
The keyword for the 2012 Royals is 'IF'. IF Luke Hochevar's 2011 2nd half performance, 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 7.7 k/9, was indicative of future results; IF Jonathan Sanchez can stay healthy and regain his 2009 form, 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and his national league low 6.6 hits/9; IF Bruce Chen can somehow duplicate the last 2 years without injury (he has never thrown 200 innings); IF Danny Duffy somehow manages to become more efficient with his excellent array of pitches; IF Felipe Paulino can harness his 8.5K/9 stuff, then the Royals might end up winning the division. The Royals don't need the best rotation in baseball to win the AL Central, but they do need to be top half of the AL. KC does have the lefties necessary to make things difficult on some very lefty-rich lineups in the AL Central. Too many 'ifs' to put them any higher, but they do have the ability to rise substantially in the 2013 rankings if any of their young pitchers like Crow, Duffy, Montgomery, or Odirizzi puts it all together. Duffy and Crow still have options, but Mendoza does not, so don't be surprised if either or both of them start the year in Omaha and Mendoza gets a chance in the rotation or as a long-reliever out of the pen.
*Reason for optimism: In 2011, Kyle Davies and Sean O'Sullivan combined to pitch 115.2 innings over 23 starts. In those innings they surrendered 88 earned runs and 99 runs total (6.89 ERA). No matter who ends up filling out the rotation, surely it will be somebody better than Davies and O'Sullivan.
| Starter | GS | IP | ERA/WHIP/K9 | |
| 1 | Luke Hochevar | 31 | 198 | 4.68/1.28/5.82 |
| 2 | Jonathan Sanchez | 19 | 101.1 | 4.26/1.44/9.06 |
| 3 | Bruce Chen | 25 | 155 | 3.77/1.30/5.63 |
| 4 | Felipe Paulino | 20 | 124.2 | 4.11/1.37/8.59 |
| 5 | Danny Duffy | 20 | 105.1 | 5.64/1.61/7.43 |
| on deck | Luis Mendoza | |||
| Mike Montgomery | ||||
| Aaron Crow | ||||
| Everett Teaford |
5. Minnesota Twins
It is going to be a long year in Minnesota. Top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson is will miss the entire 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery and there is little help at the high minors ready to contribute. The only 'bright spot' on the big league club last season was Carl Pavano, if you consider a 4+ ERA a bright spot. Liriano and Baker were both limited by injuries in 2011, and only Baker performed well when healthy. Baker posted a solid 3.14 ERA and struck out over 8 per nine innings. The real problem with the Twins is the absence of any high ceiling breakout candidates. This Twins team seems to have what every Twins has had; strike throwers that allow hitters to put the ball in play. If they are to succeed in 2012, the team health and defense will need to be much improved from 2011.
| Starter | GS | IP | ERA/WHIP/K9 | |
| 1 | Carl Pavano | 33 | 222 | 4.30/1.36/4.14 |
| 2 | Fransisco Liriano | 24 | 134.1 | 5.09/1.49/7.50 |
| 3 | Scott Baker | 21 | 134.2 | 3.14/1.17/8.22 |
| 4 | Nick Blackburn | 26 | 148.1 | 4.49/1.60/4.61 |
| 5 | Jason Marquis | 23 | 132 | 4.43/1.49/5.18 |
| on deck | Anthony Swarzak | |||
| Brian Duensing | ||||
| Liam Hendriks |
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