Sunday, March 18, 2012

Chiefs Free Agency Progress and What Could be Ahead

The first week of NFL free agency is in the books and the Chiefs have actually managed to make some quality additions to their offense.  The addition of RB Peyton Hillis, TE Kevin Boss, and RT Eric Winston should solidify the offense around Matt Cassel, assuming Jamal Charles returns healthy.  This past week could end up being the most productive week of free agency in the history of the franchise.  While none of the signed players has the cache of a Mario Williams are a Peyton Manning, they are all above average players at their respective positions who should contribute immediately and add increased flexibility to the offense. 

The addition of Kevin Boss should allow the Chiefs to force defenses to run more two-TE sets that will force teams to cover both Kevin Boss and Tony Moeaki with a linebacker.  If a team substitutes a safety or corner to cover one or both of the TE's, then Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis will be able to take advantage of the lack of linebackers (only 6 bigs in the front of the defense) in run support.  I don't expect the Chiefs to have the same kind of success throwing to their TE's as the 2011 Patriots, but a healthy Charles would help Matt Cassel complete more 7-10 yard passes to TE's being covered by slower linebackers.  And the addition of Eric Winston, who has been one of the top RT's in the game over the last 4 years, should allow Moeaki, Boss, and the running backs to enter the pass pattern more frequently. 

At this point the only positions of need on the KC offense seems to be at full-back and depth on the offensive line.  Shane Bannon, who was acquired in the 7th round of the 2011 draft out of Yale, is the only fullback on the roster.  Personally, I would feel more comfortable with a more experienced fullback and a few are still available in free agency:

Ahmard Hall
Jacob Hester 
Owen Schmitt
Mike Sellers

Hall would be the best blocker still in his prime, while Hester would be able to catch the ball out of the backfield.  Sellers is a stud, but he will also be 37 years old and has diminishing skills as a blocker.  Schmitt just got a DWI a couple of weeks ago and I don't see the Chiefs taking a chance on him.  They do love their choir boys.

All these offensive additions leave us as Chiefs fans to believe that a signing of a defensive lineman is yet to come or the team believes they can fill their 2012 needs through the draft.  Which positions on the defense will need filling and who is available to fill them?  Here is what I think the starting defense would look like if a game were being played tomorrow:


LDE Tyson Jackson Allen Bailey
NT Amon Gordon Jerrell Powe
RDE Glen Dorsey
LOLB Justin Houston Andy Studebaker
LILB Jovan Belcher Brandon Siler
RILB Derrick Johnson Cory Greenwood
ROLB Tamba Hali Cameron Sheffield
LCB Brandon Flowers Jalil Brown
SS Eric Berry Donald Washington
FS Kendrick Lewis Kyle McCarthy
RCB Stanford Routt Javier Arenas

I think it is apparent the Chiefs still have work to do along their defensive line, one inside linebacker spot, and depth in the secondary.  Amon Gordon did manage to contribute in limited duty in 2011, but he is a journeyman for a reason and should not be counted on to be the starter in 2012.  At this point, KC is also counting on Jalil Brown and Javier Arenas to fill the nickel and dime corner slots but a number of premium corner prospects should be available at pick 11 in the first round.  The Chiefs, outside of Hali, struggled to rush the passer in 2011, but I doubt they will draft over Justin Houston as they expect him to increase his contribution in the sack department after a full year of off season conditioning.  Outside of DJ, Tamba, Eric Berry, Justin Houston and Brandon Flowers the entire defense could benefit from a serious upgrade in talent through the draft.

Assuming the Chiefs resign Wallace Gilberry to add depth at DE, here is a list of players still available via free agency that could play NT:

AGE Player
33 Antonio Garay
29 Brandon McKinney
33 Shaun Rogers
32 Aubrayo Franklin
36 Kelly Gregg
26 Pat Sims
35 Fred Robbins

If the Chiefs were to sign Anotnio Garay, they could potentially shore up their interior run defense and add some pass rush to their defensive line.  Garay and Dorsey could stay in the game even when the Chiefs go to their 2-down lineman package on passing downs and still be able to be solid against the run.  McKinney, Rogers, and Franklin all have the stink of failure or have displayed declining skills but could be 2-down nose tackles that sub out on passing downs.  Pat Sims is strictly a run stuffer and Fred Robbins has displayed the ability to rush the passer from a defensive line spot, but he lacks experience in a 3-4 (and he's really old).  Kelly Gregg is ancient but still serviceable as a run defender.  That leaves the Chiefs with Garay as the only viable solution with upside and enough tread on the tire to warrant a long term deal. 

If the Chiefs decide to address the interior of the defensive line in the draft, they may find it slim pickings.  Here is a list of the top 3 players in the draft that could fill the nose tackle spot in a 3-4 defense:

1st Dontari Poe
early 2nd Alameda Ta'amu
2nd Dajohn Harris

Poe might be off the board by the time the Chiefs pick at 11, but there are no 3-4 defensive teams drafting ahead of the Chiefs at this point, but trades are always a possibility and the Chiefs may wait until the 2nd round to draft Alameda Ta'amu out of Washington.  He is an enormous person that anchors against the run and has zero questions regarding his motor.  Harris would be a project that might look better as a defensive tackle in a 4-3.

Top Draft eligible defensive players that will probably still be available at pick #11

Pos Round 1
ILB Luke Kuechly
S Mark Barron
NT Dontari Poe
CB Janoris Jenkins
CB Dre Kirkpatrick

What I Would Do; GM Chris:

1. Attempt to sign Antonio Garay  to a contract that pays less than $5 million per season.

2. Resign DE Wallace Gilberry and CB Travis Daniels to add depth heading into the draft.

3. Draft ILB Luke Kuechly with the 11th pick in the draft to put Belcher at the backup ILB spot moving out Cory Greenwood.

4. Draft DT Alameda Ta'amu in the 2nd round to potentially play behind Garay or start over Amon Gordon if Garary signs elseware.

5. Draft Kelechi Osemele OG in the 3rd round to add depth to the interior of the offensive line and as a potential replacement for Ryan Lilja down the road.

6. Draft Jared Crick DE Nebraska in the 4th round because I have always hated him as a player (which means he's really good) and is potentially undervalued because of injuries during his senior season.  Also, Dorsey and Jackson will be coming up on the end of their rookie contracts and will need replacement without significant pay cuts.  At least in Jackson's case.  Dorsey has been the strongest d-lineman over the last 2 years.

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