Royals catcher Salvador Perez tore his meniscus and is expected to miss 12-14 weeks of action. That would put him back in action sometime between June 8th and June 22nd. In the meantime, the Royals have to figure out what, if anything, needs to be done to replace Perez for the first 2 1/2 months of the season. Many of the Royals bloggers seem to believe that Perez is the least replaceable player on the team, but what was a realistic expectation for Perez in 2012 prior to the injury?
Last season Perez played in 39 games at the big league level and had a batting line of .331/.361/.473 and threw out 21% of runners attempting to steal (in 26 attempts). It seems most fans believe Perez was going to fall short of that sort of offensive production in 2012, but what would be an accurate expectation of his performance? In 2010, Perez spent his time at Wilmington, a notorious graveyard for hitters, and managed to put up decent offensive numbers: .290/.322/.411. In 2011 Perez played in 91 minor league games at both AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha before getting a call up to the big leagues and between those two stops he managed to produce a line of .290/.331/.437. He only walked 16 times in 334 AB's but he also only stuck out 36 times.
So, the question remains, what sort of offensive numbers could the Royals reasonably expect in 2012 prior to the injury? My guess would be somewhere in the neighborhood of .280/.320/.420 with around 12-15 homers and 25+ doubles in 130 games. While not as impressive as his September 2011 numbers he would still have been a marked improvement over Matt Traenor, the 2011 opening day starter. Heck, in 2010, Yuniesky Betancourt lead the team in home runs with 18! So 15 homers should not be discounted for a team playing half its games at Kaufmann Stadium.
Perez is also considered to be an above average defensive catcher. Most Royals fans remember him picking off two runners in his MLB debut last season, but he did not have the same success in throwing out base stealers. He only managed to throw out 7/26 attempted base stealers for a whopping 21%. I know that CS% is not the only or best way to evaluate a catcher's defensive skills. The Royals pitching staff could be equally to blame, yet Brayan Pena (who most treat as a whipping boy) managed to throw out 27/48 attempted base stealers for a total of 36% and allowed only 4 passed balls in 70 games.
Another argument I often hear involves the need for a veteran catcher to handle the Royals 'young pitching staff'. Who in the staff is young? Hochevar, Sanchez, Chen, Paulino, and Duffy will most likely be handling 2/3 or the teams innings (only 1 of those guys is younger than 27) and the bullpen is anchored by Soria, Broxton, Holland, and Coleman. None of these guys are spring chickens. Who are the young guys that need all this coddling? I got into a discussion with Greg Schaum on Twitter (who is much in favor of acquiring a catcher) in which he sighted John Ruiz of the Phillies as an example of a catcher who helps his pitching staff. Come on now, the Phillies have Halladay, Lee, and Hamels. I'm pretty certain that I could catch for those guys and they would still make the all-star game. Isn't it funny how really good pitchers seem to have really good catchers? I think it probably has more to do with the pitcher...just a hunch. It's amazing how great players make their supporting players and coaches look like geniuses.
If the Royals intend to bring in another catcher it would most likely be another team's 3rd catcher or one of the ancient guys still available in free agency. Does any Royals fan want to watch Ivan Rodriguez collect paychecks? Aren't the Royals past the point of inserting a 3rd team catcher into their starting lineup on a consistent basis? KC is an above average offensive team that expects increased contributions at 3rd, 2nd, and 1st base in 2012. Why not let Brayan Pena carry the bulk of the load while Perez is out? Increased playing time for Pena could pay dividends down the road if the Royals manage to stay in contention this season. The extra AB's the switch hitting Pena receives could make him a more suitable pinch hitter coming off the bench.
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