Why Mike Wallace Makes sense in New England

Restricted Free Agency Guidelines:  If a club tenders an offer of $1.552 million or 110% (whichever is greater) of the previous year's salary, then the current club has both "right of first refusal"; and rights to the first round draft pick from the signing club.

Last season, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace was paid $708,333.  This season, they must offer him a minimum of $1.552 million per season if they wish to retain the right of first refusal and receive a 1st round pick in compensation from any other team that would sign him.  This is complicated by the fact the Steelers are at this point nearly $12 million over the 2012 salary cap.  That $12 million number is just to get under the cap, much more fat will need to be trimmed if Pittsburgh hopes to retain an important play maker like Mr. Wallace.  The Steelers are certain to come up with enough cap space to make a 1st round pick qualifying offer, but will that be enough to keep their receiver's eyes from wandering?

The Pittsburgh predicament got me to thinking...what teams have the need, cap space, cache, and draft picks to convince Mike Wallace to sign an offer sheet with them?  My answer, the New England Patriots. 

Need:  New England is definitely in need of speedy front line receiver, both Wes Welker and Deion Branch are 2012 free agents.  The Patriots value Welker's production, but I believe they also see his success as a byproduct of Tom Brady and he is unlikely to duplicate his success else ware.  Unless Welker or Branch are each (or both) willing to accept a contract below market value, it seems both will be playing somewhere else in 2012. 

Cap Space:  The Patriots, for all their success, have been responsible stewards of the salary cap (I guess that is the advantage of having an under payed Brady).  According to numerous online sources, the Patriots are currently $20 million under the 2012 salary cap.  Signing Mike Wallace to a 4 year $25 million deal would guarantee a high quality target for Brady through the end of his career and not force the Patriots into any cap hardship down the line.

Cache:  Would Mike Wallace sign an offer sheet with the a team that lacks a franchise quarterback?  The 49ers are in need of a receiver, but playing with Brady is certain to build a receiver in his prime into a money-making machine. 

Draft Picks:  As luck would have it, the Patriots are in possession of two 2012 1st round draft picks.  The 27th and the 31st picks.  Neither would be guaranteed to result in a player the quality of Wallace.  The new draft pick slotting system allows teams to better predict and control draft pick compensation.  Last season, the 27th pick signed for $7.46 million for 4 years and the 31st pick received $6.7 million for 4 years.  Instead of giving $14.5 million to two players that may not contribute early(Brady's window is closing), why not use one of those picks as compensation to sign a restricted free agent?  The Pats could still use their other 1st rounder to draft a corner like Trumaine Johnson/Janoris Jenkins or a NT like Dontari Poe and be ready to compete for the Super Bowl for the foreseeable future.

If the Patriots were to offer Mike Wallace a deal close to $20 million for 2 years, or $35 million for 4, how could the Steelers match it?  Who would they have to cut to get that far under the cap?  The Steelers only chance would be to sign Wallace to an enormous contract that would buy out his free agency years at a rate equal to the highest paid receivers in the game($10 million per, for everyone not named Fitzgerald) that would allow them to stretch the value of the contract over a number of years.  This close to full-blown free agency, why would Wallace settle for less than market value?  If he signed a shorter term deal with New England it would give him the chance to sign a 2nd big deal three years down the road.

Watch out Pittsburgh, New England may be hunting for a wideout.