Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Early 2013 NFL Mock Draft Picks 1-10

**update** Taylor Lewan, OT from Michigan, and a player I currently have being drafted in the top 5, announced on 9/9 that he will be returning to Michigan for his senior year. I guess that's why it's called the 'early' mock draft.

1.        Chiefs

Needs:  QB, DL, CB, TE, S

Ideal Draft Scenario:  Trade the 1st overall pick to a team selecting somewhere between the 8th and 12th picks in the first round AND who also has a 2nd round pick at approximately the same spot.  This would allow the Chiefs to select someone like Georgia LB Alec Ogeltree in a more appropriate location in the 1st round and maintain their full complement of draft picks; all while providing the ammunition (an additional high 2nd round pick) to go after someone like Kirk Cousins, Ryan Mallett, or Matt Flynn to fill the void at QB.  If KC is unable to find value in a trade then they simply take the top rated player on the board. 

Pick:  Damontre Moore OLB/DE Texas A&M

The Why:  Moore has played both OLB and DE in college and is a full three years younger than fellow pass rusher Jarvis Jones.  If KC is able to resign free agent to be Branden Albert they will have little need for someone like Joeckel.  Star Lotulelei could be another choice at number 1 but I don’t see KC using consecutive 1st round picks on defensive tackles unless the new coach wants to switch back to a 4-3 defensive front.

    2.        Jaguars

Needs:  QB, OL, Pass Rush

Pick:  Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M

The Why:  If a sane person were running the Jags they would be KC’s biggest competition for a player like Kirk Cousins, but it sounds as though management is going to go for the top in Jersey sales by bringing in Tim Tebow.  Jax has actually accumulated a fair amount of skill position talent, with Blackmon, Shorts, Robinson, Shipley and Lewis to catch the ball, but their QB’s were sacked 50 times last year.  They go with the top O-Lineman on the board.

3.        Raiders

Needs:  WR, Pass Rush, RB, Defensive Secondary

Pick:  Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia

The Why:  The Raiders need a pass rush, and while I see Jones as being seriously flawed as a player because of his age and injury history, the selection of Jones does fill a need with what the public perceives as a can’t miss pass rusher.  If there is a WR that really turns heads during the Senior Bowl or Combine I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders jump at the chance to upgrade their WR corps.

4.       Eagles

Needs:  OL, OL, OL, Defensive Line

Pick:  Taylor Lewan OT Michigan

The Why:  The Eagles offensive line has been absolutely atrocious because of injury and poor talent evaluation.  They possess a fine collection of skill position players on both offense and defense but they are the poster child for losing games up front.  You don’t have to have the best offensive line in the NFL but you do need to be able to keep your QB off the injury report on a consistent basis.  Chance Warmack, G from Alabama could also be a possibility but quality guards can be found in later rounds at a much cheaper price.

5.       Lions

Needs:  OL, Secondary, LB depth

Pick:  Manti Te’o LB Notre Dame

The Why:  The top two offensive tackles have already come off the board and adding a high character stud to your defense is never a bad idea.  Te’o brings leadership and maturity to a unit that lacks both.  If Michigan native Taylor Lewan (OT Michigan) is still available when the Lion’s get on the clock I would expect them to jump at the chance to improve their pass protection.

6.       Browns

Needs:  OG, Safety, OLB, QB depth

Pick:  Chance Warmack OG Alabama

The Why:  The Browns made significant upgrades to the RB and WR positions over the last few drafts and now it is time to help those position groups out by drafting the best player left of the board who also happens to fill a need.  Trent Richardson will find the running a little easier with Joe Thomas and Chance Warmack manning the left side of the offensive line.

7.       Cardinals

Needs:  QB, OT, OG, TE

Pick:  Star Lotulelei DT Utah

The Why:  The new coach won’t wish to tie his future to the selection of a QB when none is worthy of the pick.  Arizona will add to what is already strength and select Lotulelei, who many consider the top player available. 

8.       Bills

Needs:  WR, TE, OG, LB, QB

Pick: Bjoern Werner DE Florida St.

The Why:  This draft is weak in the areas the Bills need, especially at WR and QB.  Ogeltree could be a possibility here but Werner’s draft grade and personal makeup make him the pick for Buffalo/Toronto at number 8.

9.       Jets

Needs:  QB, WR, OG, RT, Pass Rush

Pick:  Geno Smith QB West Virginia

The Why:  The Jets are short-sighted and when you combine that with stupidity you end up with a QB who was selected about 30 picks before he should have been.  Heck, the Jets may be the ideal team for KC to trade the 1st pick because they don’t value draft picks and continually attempt to win the press conference instead of the AFC East.  Please show some patience and don’t go reaching for need in the top 10 of the draft.

10.   Titans

Needs:  OL, TE, secondary depth, DT

Pick:  Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State

The Why:  This draft is deep in defensive lineman, so why fight it; select the highest rated guy on the board to help build your defense since you play in a division with Houston and Indy.  It’s best to get some horses to compete with Andrew Luck in a year devoid of any Andrew Luck’s in the draft.

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