The
Royals will not be making a postseason appearance in 2012; their fans have had
their dreams crushed for yet another season before the summer has even started.
Not to fret, KC has all the resources to make a run in 2013. A few stars are
aligning which will allow the team to acquire two top-of-the-rotation starting
pitchers to combine with their young and talented offense. A much better group of starting pitchers will
be coming available via free agency in 2013 which should allow KC to bolster
its starting rotation. Now, about those
stars that are aligning:
1.
The Royals spent almost $19 million
on the acquisition of amateur talent in 2011; now the new CBA limits the total
spending on the amateur draft and Latin America to approximately $11 million
per season. While this puts a dent in the manner in which the GMDM has
assembled an envious amount of minor league talent, it will still come down to
scouting and drafting the right players, something this organization has done
well since 2007. +$8 million in the
bank.
2.
At this point, only 6 Royals players
are signed to above league minimum contracts for 2013. They are:
Contract Players
|
|
Billy Butler
|
$8,500,000
|
Jeff Francoeur
|
$6,750,000
|
Alex Gordon
|
$9,000,000
|
Joakim Soria
|
$750,000
|
Bruce Chen
|
$4,500,000
|
Alcides Escobar
|
$3,000,000
|
Salvador Perez
|
$1,000,000
|
Total Dollars:
|
$33,500,000
|
(Soria’s total is a buyout; he would
earn around $8 million if retained)
3.
In addition to the players under
contract, the team also has (potentially) 6 players eligible for
arbitration. Here is a list of those
players along with what they would expect to make on a one-year deal with the
club (the Royals have never actually gone to arbitration with a player since
Dayton Moore has been the GM):
Arbitration Players
|
|
Luke Hochevar
|
$4,000,000
|
Felipe Paulino
|
$2,500,000
|
Chris Getz
|
$1,000,000
|
Jose Mijares
|
$1,200,000
|
Brayan Pena
|
$1,000,000
|
Mitch Maier
|
$1,000,000
|
Total Dollars:
|
$10,700,000
|
At this point, it is unlikely
Hochevar would be retained at anything close to $4 million, and Getz, Pena, and
Maier could be replaced by league-minimum wage earners Giavotella, Pina, and
Dyson to garner significant savings among the bench players.
4.
At the start of 2013, as many as 15
players on the 25-man roster could be making the league-minimum salary. This group comprises 3/5 of the infield, 6/7
of the bullpen, 1/5 of the starting pitching staff and the entire 4 player
bench:
Minimum Salary Players
|
||
Starter
|
Eric Hosmer
|
$555,000
|
Starter
|
Mike Moustakas
|
$555,000
|
Starter
|
Lorenzo Cain
|
$555,000
|
Starter
|
Johnny Giavotella
|
$555,000
|
Bench
|
Jarrod Dyson
|
$555,000
|
Bench
|
Wil Myers
|
$555,000
|
Bench
|
Manny Pina
|
$555,000
|
Bench
|
Irving Falu
|
$555,000
|
Starter
|
Danny Duffy
|
$555,000
|
Pen
|
Aaron Crow
|
$555,000
|
Pen
|
Greg Holland
|
$555,000
|
Pen
|
Tim Collins
|
$555,000
|
Pen
|
Kelvin Herrera
|
$555,000
|
Pen
|
Everett Teaford
|
$555,000
|
Pen
|
Louis Coleman
|
$555,000
|
Total Dollars:
|
$8,325,000
|
Crow is listed with the minimum salary players even though
he signed a Major League deal when he was drafted and was paid $1.6 million in
2012, but his deal is up after the 2012 season and he is not yet arbitration
eligible.
5.
Totals: The above 27 players + Soria’s buyout come to
a grand total of $52,525,000 in
total salary. Obviously, the team cannot
carry 27 players on the active roster, so some cuts are going to be made. Let’s start trimming the fat, shall we?
Cuts
1.
Luke Hochevar: If he continues on his abysmal track in 2012,
the Royals will have no choice but to cut bait and save the $4 million + he
would be due in 2012. At this point, it
would take a miraculous turn of events for the retention of Hochevar to be
anything less than robbery.
2.
Brayan Pena: I like Pena, he has a
great attitude, and has shown marked improvement in his time with the team, but
he will be 31 years old next season and it simply doesn’t make sense to pay
your backup catcher more than your starter while an equivalent player (Pina) can
play for half the price. +$600k
3.
Mitch Maier: The longest tenured Royal could be out in
2013. He will be in his second season of
arbitration and will start to get expensive.
This team cannot afford the luxury of paying $1 million+ to a
replacement level player with zero chance of accruing more than 150 AB’s. +$600k
4.
Chris Getz: Whatever Chris wants he does not Getz. Getz is a below average hitter with zero
power. If Giavotella is able to hit at
all the rest of 2012, Getz should be non-tendered after the season. Kind of off topic, but the Royals should be
considered the winners in the Chris Getz for Mark Teahen trade. Good old Mark is out of baseball and Getz is
still bunting his way into our hearts…. +$600k
5.
Joakim Soria: If Soria is able to come back and be the
dominant reliever that we all know and love, then picking up his $8 million
option might still be a luxury this team cannot afford while the team has a
plethora of high quality bullpen arms.
+$7.5 million
These combined moves would save the Royals approximately $13,300,000 in payroll in 2013; 23
players are now on my 2012 Royals active roster with a grand total of $45,525,000 in payroll.
6.
Let’s take a look how my 2013 Royal’s
roster breaks down by salary:
Position Players
|
||
C
|
Perez
|
$1,000,000
|
1B
|
Hosmer
|
$555,000
|
2B
|
Giavotella
|
$555,000
|
SS
|
Escobar
|
$3,000,000
|
3B
|
Moustakas
|
$555,000
|
LF
|
Gordon
|
$9,000,000
|
CF
|
Cain
|
$555,000
|
RF
|
Francoeur
|
$6,750,000
|
DH
|
Butler
|
$8,500,000
|
Bench
|
Pina
|
$555,000
|
Bench
|
Falu
|
$555,000
|
Bench
|
Wil Myers
|
$555,000
|
Bench
|
Dyson
|
$555,000
|
Starters:
|
$30,470,000
|
|
Bench:
|
$2,220,000
|
|
Total:
|
$32,690,000
|
$32 million for an entire offense is pretty cheap,
especially when you consider that Francoeur will be a free-agent in 2014, which
will result in a net gain of $6.5 million if he is replaced by Wil Myers. Only Eric Hosmer will be arbitration eligible
in 2014, so the Royals have done an excellent job of controlling their position
player costs over the next 3-4 seasons.
Pitchers
|
||
1
|
???
|
$18-20 Mil
|
2
|
???
|
$12-14 Mil
|
3
|
Paulino
|
$2,500,000
|
4
|
Duffy
|
$555,000
|
5
|
Chen
|
$4,500,000
|
Pen
|
Holland
|
$555,000
|
Crow
|
$555,000
|
|
Mijares
|
$1,200,000
|
|
Collins
|
$555,000
|
|
Kelvin Herrera
|
$555,000
|
|
Louis Coleman
|
$555,000
|
|
Everett Teaford
|
$555,000
|
|
Starters:
|
$7,555,000
|
|
Bullpen:
|
$4,530,000
|
|
Pitching Total:
|
$12,085,000
|
|
Total Team:
|
$45,525,000
|
|
***
|
W/1&2 Starter:
|
$75,525,000
|
Young players don’t cost very much, and the Royal’s reliance
on youth in the bullpen should allow them to go out and fill those top two
spots in the rotation with high-quality players. Three years ago, the team had a payroll near
$75 million, while they were spending nearly $20 million in the draft and Latin
America. I don’t see the Royals giving
out any 10-year deals, but they do have somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-50
million in order to bolster their rotation, bullpen, and bench and still stay
within previous salary parameters. Theoretically,
shouldn’t the new rules regarding amateur compensation allow the Royals to
invest $8-10 million more into the big league club without risking the owner’s
profits?
If the team were to add a Zack Greinke at 4 years $72
million (similar to Jeff Weaver’s deal) and Anibal Sanchez or Edwin Jackson 4
years $50 million KC would still have a total team salary under $80 million
with the opportunity to be under $70 million in 2014 after the contracts of
Bruce Chen and Jeff Francoeur expire. Here
is a list of pitchers who are scheduled to be available in free agency in 2013:
P
|
Zack Greinke
|
P
|
Shaun Marcum
|
P
|
Kyle Lohse
|
P
|
Edwin Jackson
|
P
|
Brandon McCarthy
|
P
|
Anibal Sanchez
|
P
|
Cole Hamels
|
P
|
Hiroki Kuroda
|
P
|
Colby Lewis
|
P
|
Jake Peavy
|
P
|
Ryan Dempster
|
P
|
Jeremy Guthrie
|
RP
|
Mike Adams
|
RP
|
Brandon League
|
Please KC, just pick two, preferably from the top and commence winning with an $80 million payroll.
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