Friday, May 11, 2012

The Royals have the Cash to Succeed in 2013


The Royals will not be making a postseason appearance in 2012; their fans have had their dreams crushed for yet another season before the summer has even started. Not to fret, KC has all the resources to make a run in 2013. A few stars are aligning which will allow the team to acquire two top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers to combine with their young and talented offense.  A much better group of starting pitchers will be coming available via free agency in 2013 which should allow KC to bolster its starting rotation.  Now, about those stars that are aligning:

1.      The Royals spent almost $19 million on the acquisition of amateur talent in 2011; now the new CBA limits the total spending on the amateur draft and Latin America to approximately $11 million per season. While this puts a dent in the manner in which the GMDM has assembled an envious amount of minor league talent, it will still come down to scouting and drafting the right players, something this organization has done well since 2007.  +$8 million in the bank.

2.      At this point, only 6 Royals players are signed to above league minimum contracts for 2013.  They are:

Contract Players
Billy Butler
$8,500,000
Jeff Francoeur
$6,750,000
Alex Gordon
$9,000,000
Joakim Soria
$750,000
Bruce Chen
$4,500,000
Alcides Escobar
$3,000,000
Salvador Perez
$1,000,000
Total Dollars:
$33,500,000

(Soria’s total is a buyout; he would earn around $8 million if retained)

3.      In addition to the players under contract, the team also has (potentially) 6 players eligible for arbitration.  Here is a list of those players along with what they would expect to make on a one-year deal with the club (the Royals have never actually gone to arbitration with a player since Dayton Moore has been the GM):

Arbitration Players
Luke Hochevar
$4,000,000
Felipe Paulino
$2,500,000
Chris Getz
$1,000,000
Jose Mijares
$1,200,000
Brayan Pena
$1,000,000
Mitch Maier
$1,000,000
Total Dollars:
$10,700,000

At this point, it is unlikely Hochevar would be retained at anything close to $4 million, and Getz, Pena, and Maier could be replaced by league-minimum wage earners Giavotella, Pina, and Dyson to garner significant savings among the bench players.

4.      At the start of 2013, as many as 15 players on the 25-man roster could be making the league-minimum salary.  This group comprises 3/5 of the infield, 6/7 of the bullpen, 1/5 of the starting pitching staff and the entire 4 player bench:

Minimum Salary Players
Starter
Eric Hosmer
$555,000
Starter
Mike Moustakas
$555,000
Starter
Lorenzo Cain
$555,000
Starter
Johnny Giavotella
$555,000
Bench
Jarrod Dyson
$555,000
Bench
Wil Myers
$555,000
Bench
Manny Pina
$555,000
Bench
Irving Falu
$555,000
Starter
Danny Duffy
$555,000
Pen
Aaron Crow
$555,000
Pen
Greg Holland
$555,000
Pen
Tim Collins
$555,000
Pen
Kelvin Herrera
$555,000
Pen
Everett Teaford
$555,000
Pen
Louis Coleman
$555,000
Total Dollars:
$8,325,000

Crow is listed with the minimum salary players even though he signed a Major League deal when he was drafted and was paid $1.6 million in 2012, but his deal is up after the 2012 season and he is not yet arbitration eligible.

5.      Totals:  The above 27 players + Soria’s buyout come to a grand total of $52,525,000 in total salary.  Obviously, the team cannot carry 27 players on the active roster, so some cuts are going to be made.  Let’s start trimming the fat, shall we?

Cuts

1.      Luke Hochevar:  If he continues on his abysmal track in 2012, the Royals will have no choice but to cut bait and save the $4 million + he would be due in 2012.  At this point, it would take a miraculous turn of events for the retention of Hochevar to be anything less than robbery.

2.      Brayan Pena: I like Pena, he has a great attitude, and has shown marked improvement in his time with the team, but he will be 31 years old next season and it simply doesn’t make sense to pay your backup catcher more than your starter while an equivalent player (Pina) can play for half the price. +$600k

3.      Mitch Maier:  The longest tenured Royal could be out in 2013.  He will be in his second season of arbitration and will start to get expensive.  This team cannot afford the luxury of paying $1 million+ to a replacement level player with zero chance of accruing more than 150 AB’s.  +$600k

4.      Chris Getz:  Whatever Chris wants he does not Getz.  Getz is a below average hitter with zero power.  If Giavotella is able to hit at all the rest of 2012, Getz should be non-tendered after the season.  Kind of off topic, but the Royals should be considered the winners in the Chris Getz for Mark Teahen trade.  Good old Mark is out of baseball and Getz is still bunting his way into our hearts…. +$600k

5.      Joakim Soria:  If Soria is able to come back and be the dominant reliever that we all know and love, then picking up his $8 million option might still be a luxury this team cannot afford while the team has a plethora of high quality bullpen arms.  +$7.5 million

These combined moves would save the Royals approximately $13,300,000 in payroll in 2013; 23 players are now on my 2012 Royals active roster with a grand total of $45,525,000 in payroll. 

6.      Let’s take a look how my 2013 Royal’s roster breaks down by salary:

Position Players
C
Perez
$1,000,000
1B
Hosmer
$555,000
2B
Giavotella
$555,000
SS
Escobar
$3,000,000
3B
Moustakas
$555,000
LF
Gordon
$9,000,000
CF
Cain
$555,000
RF
Francoeur
$6,750,000
DH
Butler
$8,500,000
Bench
Pina
$555,000
Bench
Falu
$555,000
Bench
Wil Myers
$555,000
Bench
Dyson
$555,000
Starters:
$30,470,000
Bench:
$2,220,000
Total:
$32,690,000

$32 million for an entire offense is pretty cheap, especially when you consider that Francoeur will be a free-agent in 2014, which will result in a net gain of $6.5 million if he is replaced by Wil Myers.  Only Eric Hosmer will be arbitration eligible in 2014, so the Royals have done an excellent job of controlling their position player costs over the next 3-4 seasons.

Pitchers
1
???
$18-20 Mil
2
???
$12-14 Mil
3
Paulino
$2,500,000
4
Duffy
$555,000
5
Chen
$4,500,000
Pen
Holland
$555,000
Crow
$555,000
Mijares
$1,200,000
Collins
$555,000
Kelvin Herrera
$555,000
Louis Coleman
$555,000
Everett Teaford
$555,000
Starters:
$7,555,000
Bullpen:
$4,530,000
Pitching Total:
$12,085,000
Total Team:
$45,525,000
***
W/1&2 Starter:
$75,525,000

Young players don’t cost very much, and the Royal’s reliance on youth in the bullpen should allow them to go out and fill those top two spots in the rotation with high-quality players.  Three years ago, the team had a payroll near $75 million, while they were spending nearly $20 million in the draft and Latin America.  I don’t see the Royals giving out any 10-year deals, but they do have somewhere in the neighborhood of $30-50 million in order to bolster their rotation, bullpen, and bench and still stay within previous salary parameters.  Theoretically, shouldn’t the new rules regarding amateur compensation allow the Royals to invest $8-10 million more into the big league club without risking the owner’s profits?
If the team were to add a Zack Greinke at 4 years $72 million (similar to Jeff Weaver’s deal) and Anibal Sanchez or Edwin Jackson 4 years $50 million KC would still have a total team salary under $80 million with the opportunity to be under $70 million in 2014 after the contracts of Bruce Chen and Jeff Francoeur expire.  Here is a list of pitchers who are scheduled to be available in free agency in 2013:

P
Zack Greinke
P
Shaun Marcum
P
Kyle Lohse
P
Edwin Jackson
P
Brandon McCarthy
P
Anibal Sanchez
P
Cole Hamels
P
Hiroki Kuroda
P
Colby Lewis
P
Jake Peavy
P
Ryan Dempster
P
Jeremy Guthrie
RP
Mike Adams
RP
Brandon League

Please KC, just pick two, preferably from the top and commence winning with an $80 million payroll.

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